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The uncertainty region for the path of its potential impact in 2032 is 560,000 thousand km (350,000 thousand mi) wide. [13] The nominal approach on 22 December 2032 has the asteroid passing closer to the Moon than it does to Earth, [3] but the 3-sigma uncertainty in the distances is less than a lunar distance (as of February 2025).
According to the latest calculations from NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, there is a 0.28% chance of the asteroid striking Earth on Dec. 22, 2032. NASA said it expects the probability "to ...
As of Thursday morning, the chance of a 2032 impact was 1.3%, or odds of 1 in 77. Possible locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on December 22, 2032 — based on data gathered through January 29, 2025 ...
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says there is currently a 3.1% chance the asteroid will hit Earth on December 22, 2032, during a fleeting window of time in which the rock's orbit around the sun ...
English: Diagrams of 2024 YR4's positional uncertainty region during its 22 December 2032 close approach to Earth. The top panel shows 2024 YR4's uncertainty region as calculated on 27 January 2025, while the bottom panel shows 2024 YR4's uncertainty region as calculated on 19 February 2025.
It is estimated to be 55-meters in diameter, has an observation arc of 57-days, and is expected to be approximately 0.0023 AU (340 thousand km) from Earth on 22 December 2032 at the virtual impactor time of 14:02 UT. [9] The impact scenario is outside the 3-sigma uncertainty region of ± 410 thousand km. [9]
The critical one is in 2032, on the 22nd of December, somewhere around the middle of the day in Universal Time. That is when the asteroid is passing, really, through a part of the orbit of the Earth.
This page was last edited on 22 January 2025, at 09:07 (UTC).; Text is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 License; additional terms may apply.