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Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result, the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts.
A percentage change is a way to express a change in a variable. It represents the relative change between the old value and the new one. [6]For example, if a house is worth $100,000 today and the year after its value goes up to $110,000, the percentage change of its value can be expressed as = = %.
In contrast to the mean absolute percentage error, SMAPE has both a lower and an upper bound. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%. Indeed, the formula above provides a result between 0% and 200%.
MAPE puts a heavier penalty on negative errors, < than on positive errors. [9] As a consequence, when MAPE is used to compare the accuracy of prediction methods it is ...
An increasing positive correlation will decrease the variance of the difference, converging to zero variance for perfectly correlated variables with the same variance. On the other hand, a negative correlation ( ρ A B → − 1 {\displaystyle \rho _{AB}\to -1} ) will further increase the variance of the difference, compared to the uncorrelated ...
For example, if the mean height in a population of 21-year-old men is 1.75 meters, and one randomly chosen man is 1.80 meters tall, then the "error" is 0.05 meters; if the randomly chosen man is 1.70 meters tall, then the "error" is −0.05 meters.
Forecast errors can be evaluated using a variety of methods namely mean percentage error, root mean squared error, mean absolute percentage error, ...
Accuracy is also used as a statistical measure of how well a binary classification test correctly identifies or excludes a condition. That is, the accuracy is the proportion of correct predictions (both true positives and true negatives) among the total number of cases examined. [10]