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A continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is a continuous stochastic process in which, for each state, the process will change state according to an exponential random variable and then move to a different state as specified by the probabilities of a stochastic matrix. An equivalent formulation describes the process as changing state according to ...
Markov chains and continuous-time Markov processes are useful in chemistry when physical systems closely approximate the Markov property. For example, imagine a large number n of molecules in solution in state A, each of which can undergo a chemical reaction to state B with a certain average rate. Perhaps the molecule is an enzyme, and the ...
If one pops one hundred kernels of popcorn in an oven, each kernel popping at an independent exponentially-distributed time, then this would be a continuous-time Markov process. If X t {\displaystyle X_{t}} denotes the number of kernels which have popped up to time t , the problem can be defined as finding the number of kernels that will pop in ...
Writing in 1931, Andrei Kolmogorov started from the theory of discrete time Markov processes, which are described by the Chapman–Kolmogorov equation, and sought to derive a theory of continuous time Markov processes by extending this equation. He found that there are two kinds of continuous time Markov processes, depending on the assumed ...
For a continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) with transition rate matrix, if can be found such that for every pair of states and = holds, then by summing over , the global balance equations are satisfied and is the stationary distribution of the process. [5]
A semi-Markov process (defined in the above bullet point) in which all the holding times are exponentially distributed is called a continuous-time Markov chain. In other words, if the inter-arrival times are exponentially distributed and if the waiting time in a state and the next state reached are independent, we have a continuous-time Markov ...
Consider this figure depicting a section of a Markov chain with states i, j, k and l and the corresponding transition probabilities. Here Kolmogorov's criterion implies that the product of probabilities when traversing through any closed loop must be equal, so the product around the loop i to j to l to k returning to i must be equal to the loop the other way round,
In probability theory, Kelly's lemma states that for a stationary continuous-time Markov chain, a process defined as the time-reversed process has the same stationary distribution as the forward-time process. [1] The theorem is named after Frank Kelly. [2] [3] [4] [5]