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Looking at 538’s forecast, the most likely tipping-point state across all scenarios for the 2024 election is Pennsylvania. In 18 out of 100 cases, the Keystone State provides the winning ...
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...
Who is winning the presidential election? ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls at 48.5% to Trump's 46.1%, compared to Harris 48.3% to Trump at 45.3% four weeks ago .
See live updates of California election results from the 2024 election, including Senate and House races, state elections and ballot initiatives.
At 538, Morris developed a new election forecasting model of the 2024 election. In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93]
According to 538's analysis of polls conducted in competitive states* in which over 95 percent of the expected vote was counted as of Nov. 8 at 6 a.m. Eastern, the average poll conducted over the ...
Track your candidate using our interactive, live election maps and infographics
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...