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If a fair coin lands on heads 10 times in a row, the belief that it is "due to the number of times it had previously landed on tails" is incorrect. [61] Inverse gambler's fallacy – the inverse of the gambler's fallacy. It is the incorrect belief that on the basis of an unlikely outcome, the process must have happened many times before.
False priors are initial beliefs and knowledge which interfere with the unbiased evaluation of factual evidence and lead to incorrect conclusions. Biases based on false priors include: Agent detection bias , the inclination to presume the purposeful intervention of a sentient or intelligent agent .
Confirmation bias (also confirmatory bias, myside bias, [a] or congeniality bias [2]) is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. [3]
Belief bias is an extremely common and therefore significant form of error; we can easily be blinded by our beliefs and reach the wrong conclusion. Belief bias has been found to influence various reasoning tasks, including conditional reasoning, [3] relation reasoning [4] and transitive reasoning. [5]
In a 2015 study, researchers discovered that familiarity can overpower rationality and that repetitively hearing that a certain statement is wrong can paradoxically cause it to feel right. [4] Researchers observed the illusory truth effect's impact even on participants who knew the correct answer to begin with but were persuaded to believe ...
Chronological snobbery is the claim that if belief in both X and Y was popularly held in the past and if Y was recently proved to be untrue then X must also be untrue. That line of argument is based on a belief in historical progress and not—like the ad populum reversal is—on whether or not X and/or Y is currently popular.
The word crap did not originate as a back-formation of British plumber Thomas Crapper's apt surname. The word crap ultimately comes from Medieval Latin crappa. The word fuck did not originate in the Middle Ages as an acronym. Proposed acronyms include "fornicating under consent of king" or "for unlawful carnal knowledge", used as a sign posted ...
Overplacement is the most prominent manifestation of the overconfidence effect which is a belief that erroneously rates someone as better than others. [17] This subsection of overconfidence occurs when people believe themselves to be better than others, or "better-than-average". [ 3 ]