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Naturally, the promise of immortality by 2030 has believers and critics equally excited and skeptical, repeatedly, of Kurzweil’s bold predictions.
In October 2010, Kurzweil released his report "How My Predictions Are Faring" in PDF format, [71] analyzing the predictions he made in his books The Age of Intelligent Machines, The Age of Spiritual Machines, and The Singularity is Near. Of the 147 predictions, Kurzweil claimed that 115 were "entirely correct", 12 were "essentially correct", 17 ...
Moore's Law An updated version of Moore's Law over 120 years (based on Kurzweil's graph).The 7 most recent data points are all Nvidia GPUs.. A fundamental pillar of Kurzweil's argument is that to get to the singularity, computational capacity is as much of a bottleneck as other things like quality of algorithms and understanding of the human brain.
"The first 1000-year-old is probably only ~10 years younger than the first 150-year-old."–Aubrey de Grey, 2005 [1]. In the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV), actuarial escape velocity [2] or biological escape velocity [3] is a hypothetical situation in which one's remaining life expectancy (not life expectancy at birth) is extended longer than the time that is passing.
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The attainment of greater-than-human intelligence between 2005 and 2030 was predicted by Vinge in 1993. [4] A singularity in 2021 was predicted by Yudkowsky in 1996. [22] Human-level AI around 2029 and the singularity in 2045 was predicted by Kurzweil in 2005. [36] [37] He reaffirmed these predictions in 2024 in The Singularity is Nearer. [38]
Instead of pinning our hopes on the unstable distinction between humans and AI, we should focus on how to make the AI systems safe and aligned with humanity’s wellbeing.
The book was released on June 25, 2024. Kurzweil reiterates two key dates from his previous book, which predicted that Artificial Intelligence (AI) would reach human intelligence by 2029 and that people would merge with machines by 2045, an event he calls "The Singularity." [1] [2] [3] [4]