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In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value [note 1] is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. [2] [3] A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis.
In statistics, the 68–95–99.7 rule, also known as the empirical rule, and sometimes abbreviated 3sr or 3 σ, is a shorthand used to remember the percentage of values that lie within an interval estimate in a normal distribution: approximately 68%, 95%, and 99.7% of the values lie within one, two, and three standard deviations of the mean ...
In 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) published a statement on p-values, saying that "the widespread use of 'statistical significance' (generally interpreted as 'p ≤ 0.05') as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding (or implied truth) leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process". [57]
"The value for which P = .05, or 1 in 20, is 1.96 or nearly 2; it is convenient to take this point as a limit in judging whether a deviation is to be considered significant or not." [11] In Table 1 of the same work, he gave the more precise value 1.959964. [12] In 1970, the value truncated to 20 decimal places was calculated to be
In frequentist statistics, the likelihood function is itself a statistic that summarizes a single sample from a population, whose calculated value depends on a choice of several parameters θ 1... θ p, where p is the count of parameters in some already-selected statistical model. The value of the likelihood serves as a figure of merit for the ...
The p-values of the rejected null hypothesis (i.e. declared discoveries) are colored in red. Note that there are rejected p-values which are above the rejection line (in blue) since all null hypothesis of p-values which are ranked before the p-value of the last intersection are rejected. The approximations MFDR = 0.02625 and AFDR = 0.00730, here.
These values can be calculated evaluating the quantile function (also known as "inverse CDF" or "ICDF") of the chi-squared distribution; [24] e. g., the χ 2 ICDF for p = 0.05 and df = 7 yields 2.1673 ≈ 2.17 as in the table above, noticing that 1 – p is the p-value from the table.
It cannot be used if there are zero or close-to-zero values (which sometimes happens, for example in demand data) because there would be a division by zero or values of MAPE tending to infinity. [ 8 ]