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For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [ 5 ] [ 44 ] [ 45 ] [ 46 ] Planning fallacy , the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a given task.
In a 2015 study, researchers discovered that familiarity can overpower rationality and that repetitively hearing that a certain statement is wrong can paradoxically cause it to feel right. [4] Researchers observed the illusory truth effect's impact even on participants who knew the correct answer to begin with but were persuaded to believe ...
When you only know half of the information, it's easy to think you're right. There may be a psychological reason why some people aren’t just wrong in an argument — they’re confidently wrong.
illusory correlation (when people falsely perceive an association between two events or situations). A series of psychological experiments in the 1960s suggested that people are biased toward confirming their existing beliefs. Later work re-interpreted these results as a tendency to test ideas in a one-sided way, focusing on one possibility and ...
[5] [6] [7] This means that people have the unconscious cognitive ability to filter for what they are focusing on. Selective attention is always at play whenever frequency illusion occurs. [2] Since selective attention directs focus to the information they are searching for, their experience of frequency illusion will also focus on the same ...
One recent study has shown that consensus bias may improve decisions about other people's preferences. [4] Ross, Green and House first defined the false consensus effect in 1977 with emphasis on the relative commonness that people perceive about their own responses; however, similar projection phenomena had already caught attention in psychology.
Despite the fact that most people in the study believed that they had more friends than their friends, a 1991 study by sociologist Scott L. Feld on the friendship paradox shows that on average, due to sampling bias, most people have fewer friends than their friends have. [37]
If people were perfectly calibrated, their 90% confidence intervals would include the correct answer 90% of the time. [16] In fact, hit rates are often as low as 50%, suggesting people have drawn their confidence intervals too narrowly, implying that they think their knowledge is more accurate than it actually is.