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Exponential smoothing or exponential moving average (EMA) is a rule of thumb technique for smoothing time series data using the exponential window function. Whereas in the simple moving average the past observations are weighted equally, exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time. It is an easily learned ...
Smoothing may be distinguished from the related and partially overlapping concept of curve fitting in the following ways: . curve fitting often involves the use of an explicit function form for the result, whereas the immediate results from smoothing are the "smoothed" values with no later use made of a functional form if there is one;
For example, with a β of 0.1, a value of T t greater than .51 indicates nonrandom errors. The tracking signal also can be used directly as a variable smoothing constant. [2] There have also been proposed methods for adjusting the smoothing constants used in forecasting methods based on some measure of prior performance of the forecasting model.
Exponential smoothing takes into account the difference in importance between older and newer data sets, as the more recent data is more accurate and valuable in predicting future values. In order to accomplish this, exponents are utilized to give newer data sets a larger weight in the calculations than the older sets.
For temporal data, the one-sided truncated exponential kernels and the first-order recursive filters provide a way to define time-causal scale-spaces [2] [3] that allow for efficient numerical implementation and respect causality over time without access to the future. The first-order recursive filters also provide a framework for defining ...
An example of a discrete-time stationary process where the sample space is also discrete (so that the random variable may take one of N possible values) is a Bernoulli scheme. Other examples of a discrete-time stationary process with continuous sample space include some autoregressive and moving average processes which are both subsets of the ...
because such polynomials can achieve good smoothing both in the central and in the near-boundary regions of a kernel, and therefore they can be confidently used in smoothing both at the internal and at the near-boundary data points of a sampled domain. In order to avoid ill-conditioning when solving the least-squares problem, p < m and q < n.
A benefit of the square loss function is that its structure lends itself to easy cross validation of regularization parameters. Specifically for Tikhonov regularization, one can solve for the regularization parameter using leave-one-out cross-validation in the same time as it would take to solve a single problem. [10]