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538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, ... FiveThirtyEight ' s predictions for each state primary, ...
In their final prediction of the 2020 United States presidential election, FiveThirtyEight predicted that Joe Biden had an 89% chance of winning the election; [93] Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. FiveThirtyEight only missed Florida, North Carolina, and Maine's 2nd congressional district in their projections.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
FiveThirtyEight regularly predicts which state will be the tipping-point state in a given presidential election through the site's "Tipping Point Index". Past predictions of tipping-point states include either Michigan or Ohio in the 2008 election, [2] Ohio in the 2012 election, [3] Florida in the 2016 election, [4] and Pennsylvania in the 2020 ...
A note on the FiveThirtyEight website says: “As of July 21 at 2 p.m. Eastern, President Joe Biden has suspended his campaign for the 2024 Democratic Party nomination for president.
The latest polling analysis from 538 gave Trump a 53-in-100 chance of winning the election versus 47 out of 100 for Kamala Harris. It also gave Republicans an 87-in-100 chance of taking the Senate ...
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...