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Common source outbreak of Hepatitis A in Nov-Dec 1978. This epidemic curve shows a presumed first case, known as the index case on November 6, 1978. 4 days later, there was a steep increase in cases, followed by the curve tapering down to zero. Some cases were food handlers, and some secondary cases.
The modelling of infectious diseases is a tool that has been used to study the mechanisms by which diseases spread, to predict the future course of an outbreak and to evaluate strategies to control an epidemic. [1]
There are several outbreak patterns, which can be useful in identifying the transmission method or source, and predicting the future rate of infection. Each has a distinctive epidemic curve, or histogram of case infections and deaths. [6] Common source – All victims acquire the infection from the same source (e.g. a contaminated water supply ...
Compartmental models have a disease-free equilibrium (DFE) meaning that it is possible to find an equilibrium while setting the number of infected people to zero, =. In other words, as a rule, there is an infection-free steady state. This solution, also usually ensures that the disease-free equilibrium is also an equilibrium of the system.
Flattening the curve is a public health strategy to slow down the spread of an epidemic, used against the SARS-CoV-2 virus during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. The curve being flattened is the epidemic curve , a visual representation of the number of infected people needing health care over time.
You also want to account for the 150 people who never had or developed HIV over the 10-year period, (150 * 10) contributing 1500 person-years of disease-free life. That is a total of (1500 + 275) = 1775 person-years of life. Now take the 50 new cases of HIV, and divide by 1775 to get 0.028, or 28 cases of HIV per 1000 population, per year.
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An infection rate or incident rate is the probability or risk of an infection in a population.It is used to measure the frequency of occurrence of new instances of infection within a population during a specific time period.