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An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or ...
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3]
George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result to within 1.4%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000. [5] Gallup's final poll before the election predicted that Roosevelt would receive 55.7% of the popular vote and 481 electoral votes: the official tally saw ...
A polling-derived surprise akin to that of 1948 is highly unlikely this year. W. Joseph Campbell , Ph.D., is a professor emeritus of communication at American University in Washington, D.C.
Douglas E. Schoen and Carly Cooperman are pollsters and partners with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. They are co-authors of the book, “America: Unite or Die.
Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in ...
Louis Harris did polling for candidate John F. Kennedy in 1960, as head of Louis Harris & Associates, the company he had launched in 1956. Harris then began The Harris Poll in 1963, which is one of the longest-running surveys measuring U.S. public opinion, with a history of advising leaders with their poll results during times of change such as John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan.
Many interpret the “margin of error,” commonly reported for public opinion polls, as accounting for all potential errors from a survey. It does not. There are many non-sampling errors, common to all surveys, that can include effects due to question wording and misreporting by respondents.