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The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Trump's odds of winning are at 66% there based on bets. National polls generally show the race tied.
Polymarket and Kalshi were big winners of the election. But can they maintain their momentum until 2028?
Since then, the 2024 election catapulted Polymarket into prominence when its users correctly predicted Donald Trump’s victory, and a gutsy legal gambit from its competitor, Kalshi, paved the way ...
Meanwhile, Polymarket shows Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris trailing behind at just a 45.3% chance. PredictIt’s markets are a little closer.
Prediction markets show Trump leading Harris in 2024 election odds. The betting platform Polymarket has seen its trading volume surge, with $1.24 billion in October alone.
On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, to 53.3%, with a corresponding decline in Kamala Harris's odds, to 46.1%. Two Polymarket competitors continued to show Harris with better odds of winning, at about 51%; Polymarket also showed a slight edge for Harris throughout September.
Polymarket, built on the Polygon blockchain, has seen rapid growth this election cycle. Its total value locked (TVL) surged from $9.5 million in stablecoins at the start of the year to $220 million.
While Kalshi's trading volumes are not public like Polymarket's, they likely pale in comparison, with Bloomberg reporting that Kalshi did about $10 million a month in trading in April 2023, though ...