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In a floating exchange rate system, a currency's value goes up (or down) if the demand for it goes up more (or less) than the supply does. In the short run this can happen unpredictably for a variety of reasons, including the balance of trade , speculation , or other factors in the international capital market .
Obstfeld and Rogoff (2000) identified the purchasing power and exchange rate disconnect puzzle as one of the six major puzzles in international economics. [4] These were the consumption correlation puzzle, home bias in trade puzzle, the equity home bias puzzle, the Feldstein-Horioka savings-investment correlations puzzle, and the exchange rate regime puzzle.
The effect estimates future exchange rates based on the relationship between nominal interest rates. Multiplying the current spot exchange rate by the nominal annual U.S. interest rate and dividing by the nominal annual U.K. interest rate yields the estimate of the spot exchange rate 12 months from now:
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US Dollar Index and major financial events. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX, DXY, DX, or, informally, the "Dixie") is an index (or measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, [1] often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies. [2]
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