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After predicting the winners of the previous five elections, The Literary Digest (based on cards mailed in by its readers) predicted that Alf Landon would win by a large margin. George Gallup predicted a Roosevelt win, based on statistical random sampling within 1.1 percent of the Literary Digest results.
Poll damping is when incorrect indicators of public opinion are not used in a forecast model. For instance, early in the campaign, polls are poor measures of the future choices of voters. The poll results closer to an election are a more accurate prediction. Campbell [6] shows the power of poll damping in political forecasting.
It's no secret that the COVID-19 pandemic has turned the real estate market into a wild domain. If you're looking to buy or sell a home, you're likely eager to know how long this will last. In June...
2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] ... 2021 special issue of PS: Political Science & Politics on "Forecasting the 2020 US Elections." External links
Moderna is scaling back expectations for the number of COVID-19 vaccine deliveries it expects to make this year and the revenue it will record from them. The drugmaker said Thursday that longer ...
The results of the Blue Chip Economic Indicators have also been used to inform discussion in the financial press and blogs, including Forbes and Barron's. [ 6 ] [ 7 ] [ 8 ] In March 2009, PolitiFact reported that a controversial statement made by Christina Romer based on Blue Chip Economic Indicators data had correctly cited the Blue Chip ...
The ISM Supply Chain Planning Forecasts (formerly Semiannual Economic Forecasts) are released in May and December and provide insight into both the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy. The data in the current report compares information from the previous report versus what current conditions are.
A large number of states, faced with the need to conform to more detailed rules for the selection of national delegates in 1972, chose a presidential primary as an easier way to come into compliance with the new national Democratic Party rules. The result was that many more future delegates would be selected by a state presidential primary.