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Trafalgar was an outlier in polling in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election, with its final poll showing Brian Kemp leading by 12 points, a race he ultimately won by less than two points; every other poll showed a one or two point difference in the race.
The Trafalgar Group's polling numbers were mostly inaccurate in the 2022 United States midterm elections. [20] Trafalgar's polls incorrectly suggested that Republican candidates such as Kari Lake, Mehmet Oz, Tim Michels, and Herschel Walker, would all win.
Opinion poll. An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating ...
Trafalgar’s Wisconsin poll of 1,086 likely voters was also conducted between Sept. 28 and 30, and it’s more of a mixed bag for Republicans, showing some Trumpers aren’t sold on Senate ...
Former President Trump has a 2.2 percentage point lead over Vice President Harris in the critical swing state of Michigan, a new poll found. The survey, released Wednesday by the Trafalgar Group ...
In that July poll, Trump was ahead of Biden by 2 points, 45% to 43%. The new poll shows the key voting blocs that have moved — and those that haven’t really budged — since Biden’s exit.
However, it missed some close elections: 1948, 1976 and 2004, the popular vote in 2000, and the likely-voter numbers in 2012. [3] The month section in the tables represents the month in which the opinion poll was conducted. D represents the Democratic Party, and R represents the Republican Party.
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...