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The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations [2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same probability space, then
In probability theory, the law of total variance [1] or variance decomposition formula or conditional variance formulas or law of iterated variances also known as Eve's law, [2] states that if and are random variables on the same probability space, and the variance of is finite, then
The normal equations can be derived directly from a matrix representation of the problem as follows. The objective is to minimize = ‖ ‖ = () = +.Here () = has the dimension 1x1 (the number of columns of ), so it is a scalar and equal to its own transpose, hence = and the quantity to minimize becomes
Expectile – related to expectations in a way analogous to that in which quantiles are related to medians; Law of total expectation – the expected value of the conditional expected value of X given Y is the same as the expected value of X; Median – indicated by in a drawing above
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The term law of total probability is sometimes taken to mean the law of alternatives, which is a special case of the law of total probability applying to discrete random variables. [ citation needed ] One author uses the terminology of the "Rule of Average Conditional Probabilities", [ 4 ] while another refers to it as the "continuous law of ...
The law of total covariance can be proved using the law of total expectation: First, (,) = [] [] [] from a simple standard identity on covariances. Then we apply the law of total expectation by conditioning on the random variable Z:
In words: the variance of Y is the sum of the expected conditional variance of Y given X and the variance of the conditional expectation of Y given X. The first term captures the variation left after "using X to predict Y", while the second term captures the variation due to the mean of the prediction of Y due to the randomness of X.