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The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The main American global forecast model, the GFS underwent an upgrade several years ago that improved its reliability for hurricane forecasts. The GFS and GFS Ensembles have struggled in the last ...
Trackwise, the GUNA model is a consensus of the interpolated versions of the GFDL, UKMET with quality control applied to the cyclone tracker, United States Navy NOGAPS, and GFS models. The version of the GUNA corrected for model biases is known as the CGUN. The TCON consensus is the GUNA consensus plus the Hurricane WRF model.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season officially ran from June 1 to November 30. [7] A total of 21 tropical depressions formed, all of which reached at least tropical or subtropical intensity. This made it the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, behind only 2005 and 2020. And, like both those seasons, the 2021 season exhausted ...
Also known as spaghetti plots, these models show where a tropical system, such as a hurricane, may go. The more they are clustered together, the higher the confidence in the forecast.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active Atlantic hurricane season on record with 21 named storms, and the sixth consecutive year in which there was above-average tropical cyclone activity [nb 1] [2] The season officially began on June 1, 2021, and ended on November 30, 2021.
The reasons researchers predicted a busy, dangerous hurricane season this spring were record high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and a likelihood that La Niña, a natural pattern of ...