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The probability of precipitation can also be expressed using descriptive terms instead of numerical values. For instance, the NWS might describe a precipitation forecast with terms such as "slight chance" meaning 20% certainty and "scattered" meaning 30–50% areal coverage. [10] The precise meaning of these terms varies. [11]
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (abbreviated QPF) is the expected amount of liquid precipitation accumulated over a specified time over a specified area. [115] A QPF will be specified when a measurable precipitation type reaching a minimum threshold is forecast for any hour during a QPF valid period.
Within the United States, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, [20] River Forecast Centers, [1] and local forecast offices within the National Weather Service create precipitation forecasts for up to five days in the future, [21] forecasting amounts equal to or greater than 0.01 inches (0.25 mm). Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs ...
Your probability of precipitation is simply the chance of rain on a scale of zero to 100, if it's warm enough for rain, at some point in the forecast time." And, he added, "the same applies to ...
Winter storms can bring all sorts of precipitation, from snow and sleet to freezing rain and plain old rain. Here's when each type falls. Does the weather forecast call for snow or ice?
The medium range forecast products include surface pressure patterns, circulation centers and fronts, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and anomalies, probability of precipitation in 12-hour increments, total 5-day precipitation accumulation for the next five days, and 500 hPa (mb) height forecasts for days 3–7. In addition, a narrative ...
Microsoft's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution (CO 2, NO, NO 2, SO 2, O 3, and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora was trained on more than a million hours of data from six weather/climate models. [83] [84]
That's up from a 10% chance that was forecast a day earlier. ... High amounts of rain would mean 2 to 4 inches or more on the coast and in the valleys, and 4 to 8 inches or more in the mountains ...