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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
An asteroid first spotted in December has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Scientists are tracking the space rock to learn more about its size and trajectory.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.3% chance of impacting Earth in 2032, NASA reports. Astronomers all over the world are watching the asteroid, trying to narrow down its future path.
A visualization of Asteroid 2024 YR4 by NASA’s Eyes on Asteroids. The asteroid has ‘one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever,’ an astronomer says (NASA)
2024 YR 4 is an asteroid between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330 ft) in diameter, classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object.It was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024.
The asteroid came closest to Earth on Christmas Day — passing within roughly 500,000 miles (800,000 kilometers) of Earth, about twice the distance of the moon. It was discovered two days later. Chodas said scientists are poring over sky surveys from 2016, when predictions show the asteroid also ventured close.
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey.