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“The collapse of the AMOC has huge implications, and we can’t just sit back and say, ‘I don’t know, maybe we’re wrong,’” Susanne Ditlevsen says, shrugging. “I hope we’re wrong ...
[2] [3] Changes in the strength of the AMOC are thought to have been responsible for significant changes in past climate. [4] A collapse of the AMOC would have large consequences on the temperatures in the North-Atlantic region. It could lead to a reduction of air temperatures up to 10 °C.
AMOC-Index since 900 CE with pronounced slowdown since ~1850; Rahmstorf et al. (2015) [5] Climate scientists Michael Mann of Penn State and Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggested that the observed cold pattern during years of temperature records is a sign that the Atlantic Ocean's Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be weakening.
In 2022, a major review of tipping points concluded an AMOC collapse would lower global temperatures by around 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) while regional temperatures in Europe would fall by between 4 °C (7.2 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). [14] [100] A 2020 study assessed the effects of an AMOC collapse on farming and food production in Great Britain. [162]
A potential consequences of a weakening Florida Current could be higher sea levels and more flooding in Miami, the U.S. east coast and the Bahamas.
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[3] In conjunction with the RAPID/MOCHA array at 26⁰N, the EU THOR/NACLIM program and other observational elements, OSNAP will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC in the North Atlantic and an understanding of what drives its variability. [4] The first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.
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