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The credit cycle is the expansion and contraction of access to credit over time. [1] Some economists, including Barry Eichengreen , Hyman Minsky , and other Post-Keynesian economists , and members of the Austrian school , regard credit cycles as the fundamental process driving the business cycle .
The Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) is an economic theory developed by the Austrian School of economics seeking to explain how business cycles occur. The theory views business cycles as the consequence of excessive growth in bank credit due to artificially low interest rates set by a central bank or fractional reserve banks. [1]
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are many definitions of a business cycle.
The Kiyotaki–Moore model of credit cycles is an economic model developed by Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and John H. Moore that shows how small shocks to the economy might be amplified by credit restrictions, giving rise to large output fluctuations. The model assumes that borrowers cannot be forced to repay their debts.
The more general concept of a "Minsky cycle" consists of a repetitive chain of Minsky moments: a period of stability encourages risk taking, which leads to a period of instability when risks are realized as losses, which quickly exhausts participants into risk-averse trading (de-leveraging), restoring stability and setting up the next cycle.
As a result of such speculative borrowing bubbles, banks and lenders tighten credit availability, even to companies that can afford loans, and the economy subsequently contracts. This slow movement of the financial system from stability to fragility, followed by crisis, is something for which Minsky is best known, and the phrase " Minsky moment ...
In business cycle theory and finance, any economic quantity that is positively correlated with the overall state of the economy is said to be procyclical. [2] That is, any quantity that tends to increase in expansion and tend to decrease in a recession is classified as procyclical.
In the case of a credit crunch, it may be preferable to "mark to market" - and if necessary, sell or go into liquidation if the capital of the business affected is insufficient to survive the post-boom phase of the credit cycle. In the case of a liquidity crisis on the other hand, it may be preferable to attempt to access additional lines of ...