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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey.
The soonest virtual impactor of an asteroid larger than 50 meters in diameter with a better than 1:1-million chance of impact is 2022 PX 1 on 11 August 2040 with a 1: 330 000 chance of impact. [8] It is estimated to be 120-meters in diameter, has a short observation arc of 3.1-days, and is expected to be 1.78 AU (266 million km ) from Earth on ...
The small asteroid, measuring about a metre across, did not pose a threat to life. It was the third space rock detected imminently before impacting the Earth this year, but only the tenth on record.
2024 RW 1, previously known under its provisional designation CAQTDL2, [5] was a 1-meter-sized asteroid or meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on September 5, 2024, at around 12:40 a.m. PHT (September 4, 16:40 UTC) above the western Pacific Ocean near Cagayan, Philippines.
As sky surveys improve, smaller and smaller asteroids are regularly being discovered. The small near-Earth asteroids 2008 TC 3, 2014 AA, 2018 LA, 2019 MO, 2022 EB 5, 2022 WJ 1, 2023 CX 1, 2024 BX 1, 2024 RW 1, 2024 UQ, and 2024 XA 1 are the only eleven asteroids discovered before impacting into Earth (see asteroid impact prediction).
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