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There is a 42-in-100 chance that Harris wins at least one state Biden didn't win in 2020. See a new scenario. 538’s forecast is based on a combination of polls and campaign “fundamentals,” such...
Our prediction model shows the chances Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have of winning the contest to be America's next president.
This is an electoral map based on the Kalshi prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Toss-up (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
2024 President: Consensus Electoral Map. This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of red or blue.
The outlook for Democrats and Republicans, based on combined ratings from three nonpartisan political analysts. Control of the House, the Senate and the presidency are all up for grabs in the...
538’s 2024 House of Representatives election forecast model showing Democratic and Republican chances of winning control.
Election 2024 Polls: Harris vs. Trump. Updated Nov. 5, 2024. Leer en español. These averages, based on pre-election polls, were last updated at 6 p.m. Eastern time on Election Day. Follow live...
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast. All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris. 🕒 Last and final update: 12:30 a.m., Tuesday, November 5. Happy Election Day! At exactly midnight on Tuesday, we ran our simulation model for the final time in this election cycle.
From Trump to Tesla and Oppenheimer to Ohtani, here are our predictions for 2024 — written by Vox’s Future Perfect team.