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The GFS was the most skillful single track model for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season at all lead times, and its ensembles are much improved relative to previous iterations.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The main American global forecast model, the GFS underwent an upgrade several years ago that improved its reliability for hurricane forecasts. The GFS and GFS Ensembles have struggled in the last ...
Also, points for days 6 and 7 for existing tropical cyclones east of 140W longitude, [10] and days 3–7 to possible future tropical cyclones, are coordinated between the medium range pressures desk and NHC each day at 1700 UTC during the hurricane season. This coordination call began between the Extended Forecast Section and the Miami ...
The first dynamical hurricane track forecast model, the Sanders Barotropic Tropical Cyclone Track Prediction Model (SANBAR), [9] was introduced in 1970 and was used by the National Hurricane Center as part of its operational track guidance through 1989. It was based on a simplified set of atmospheric dynamical equations (the equivalent ...
This image shows the morning GEFS ensemble, which includes multiple runs of the American GFS computer model, for invest 98 on September 21, 2022. The black line in the center is the ensemble mean ...
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of number of tropical cyclones, although many of them were weak and short-lived. With 21 named storms forming, it became the second season in a row and third overall in which the designated 21-name list of storm names was exhausted.
Federal forecasters at NOAA had predicted it would be an above-average season. There were 21 named storms ranging from Ana to Wanda. It was the third most active year on record based on named ...