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In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can only take on a subset of ...
In mathematical analysis and in probability theory, a σ-algebra ("sigma algebra"; also σ-field, where the σ comes from the German "Summe" [1]) on a set X is a nonempty collection Σ of subsets of X closed under complement, countable unions, and countable intersections. The ordered pair (,) is called a measurable space.
Consider a Radon space (that is a probability measure defined on a Radon space endowed with the Borel sigma-algebra) and a real-valued random variable T. As discussed above, in this case there exists a regular conditional probability with respect to T .
The points (x,y,z) of the sphere x 2 + y 2 + z 2 = 1, satisfying the condition x = 0.5, are a circle y 2 + z 2 = 0.75 of radius on the plane x = 0.5. The inequality y ≤ 0.75 holds on an arc. The length of the arc is 5/6 of the length of the circle, which is why the conditional probability is equal to 5/6.
In the empirical sciences, the so-called three-sigma rule of thumb (or 3 σ rule) expresses a conventional heuristic that nearly all values are taken to lie within three standard deviations of the mean, and thus it is empirically useful to treat 99.7% probability as near certainty.
Then the unconditional probability that = is 3/6 = 1/2 (since there are six possible rolls of the dice, of which three are even), whereas the probability that = conditional on = is 1/3 (since there are three possible prime number rolls—2, 3, and 5—of which one is even).