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  2. US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign? - AOL

    www.aol.com/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet...

    In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...

  3. One chart shows why an official recession call isn't coming ...

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-one-chart-shows...

    The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.

  4. America dodged a recession. Now there's one last pitfall to ...

    www.aol.com/news/america-dodged-recession-now...

    Recession fears are fading and the job market is looking stronger. That's great news for average Americans and the stock market.

  5. The odds of a recession are now just 15% because fading ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/odds-recession-now-just-15...

    Like many of his Wall Street peers, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius has been rethinking the odds of the U.S. economy falling into recession in 2023. With inflation slowly fading from its ...

  6. Jobs report could trigger closely watched recession indicator

    www.aol.com/finance/jobs-report-could-trigger...

    The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, says that the US economy has entered a recession if the three-month average of the national unemployment rate has risen 0.5% or more from the ...

  7. Survey: Recession odds for U.S. economy have now fallen to ...

    www.aol.com/finance/survey-recession-odds-u...

    The odds of the U.S. economy entering a recession within the next 12 months have now fallen to a two-year low of 33 percent, according to Bankrate’s latest quarterly economists’ poll.

  8. Why a recession is 'not the situation we have today ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/why-recession-not-situation...

    BNP Paribas Asset Management Chief Market Strategist Daniel Morris joined Yahoo Finance Live to discuss the state of the U.S. economy, the probability of a recession, and the resignation of UK ...

  9. Recession forecasts have been wrong for years. Here's why a ...

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-forecasts-wrong...

    That may be why there's a rabid interest in projecting when the next recession will come. The benefits of such a call vary. It can help, or hurt, political parties amid an election year. It can ...