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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
that a perfect wife is a "rare bird" (rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cycno 6.165; a rare bird in the earth, a modified form of which is the modern phrase "a black swan", since black swans are rarer than white.) [32] that "honesty is praised and left out in the cold" Probitas laudatur et alget (I, line 74).
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
The black swan of trespass on alien waters. David Brooks theorises in his 2011 book, The Sons of Clovis: Ern Malley, Adoré Floupette and a Secret History of Australian Poetry , that the Ern Malley hoax was modelled on the 1885 satire on French Symbolism and the Decadent movement , Les Déliquescences d'Adoré Floupette , by Henri Beauclair and ...
It is the fourth poem of the section "Tableaux Parisiens", and the first in a series of three poems dedicated to Victor Hugo. It is the second poem of the section named after one of its characters. The Swan is also the only poem of this section to feature a titular non-human protagonist. [1]
The Roman satirist Juvenal wrote in AD 82 of rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno ("a rare bird in the lands, and very like a black swan"). [6] He meant something whose rarity would compare with that of a black swan, or in other words, as a black swan was not thought to exist, neither did the supposed characteristics of the "rare bird" with which it was being compared.
They were discovered, and Bilhana was thrown into prison. While awaiting judgement, he wrote the Chaurisurata Panchashika, a fifty-stanza love poem, not knowing whether he would be sent into exile or die on the gallows. It is unknown what fate Bilhana encountered. [4] Nevertheless, his poem was transmitted orally around India.