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Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
2024 YR 4 is an asteroid between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330 ft) in diameter, classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object.It was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024.
Sentry is an automated impact prediction system started in 2002 and operated by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It continually monitors the most up-to-date asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100+ years. [1]
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey.
As sky surveys improve, smaller and smaller asteroids are regularly being discovered. The small near-Earth asteroids 2008 TC 3, 2014 AA, 2018 LA, 2019 MO, 2022 EB 5, 2022 WJ 1, 2023 CX 1, 2024 BX 1, 2024 RW 1, 2024 UQ, and 2024 XA 1 are the only eleven asteroids discovered before impacting into Earth (see asteroid impact prediction).
Currently none are predicted (the single highest probability impact currently listed is ~7 m asteroid 2010 RF 12, which is due to pass earth in September 2095 with only a 5% predicted chance of impacting). [117] Currently prediction is mainly based on cataloging asteroids years before they are due to impact.
2024 RW 1, previously known under its provisional designation CAQTDL2, [5] was a 1-meter-sized asteroid or meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on September 5, 2024, at around 12:40 a.m. PHT (September 4, 16:40 UTC) above the western Pacific Ocean near Cagayan, Philippines.