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The numerator equates to the number of ways to select the winning numbers multiplied by the number of ways to select the losing numbers. For a score of n (for example, if 3 choices match three of the 6 balls drawn, then n = 3), ( 6 n ) {\displaystyle {6 \choose n}} describes the odds of selecting n winning numbers from the 6 winning numbers.
The 95% confidence interval for the true project work time is approximately E(project) ± 2 × SD(project) The 99.7% confidence interval for the true project work time is approximately E(project) ± 3 × SD(project) Information Systems typically uses the 95% confidence interval for all project and task estimates. [2]
In probability theory and statistics, the binomial distribution with parameters n and p is the discrete probability distribution of the number of successes in a sequence of n independent experiments, each asking a yes–no question, and each with its own Boolean-valued outcome: success (with probability p) or failure (with probability q = 1 − p).
The probability density function (PDF) for the Wilson score interval, plus PDF s at interval bounds. Tail areas are equal. Since the interval is derived by solving from the normal approximation to the binomial, the Wilson score interval ( , + ) has the property of being guaranteed to obtain the same result as the equivalent z-test or chi-squared test.
Selling five candy bars means getting five successes. The number of trials (i.e. houses) this takes is therefore k + 5 = n. The random variable we are interested in is the number of houses, so we substitute k = n − 5 into a NB(5, 0.4) mass function and obtain the following mass function of the distribution of houses (for n ≥ 5):
The rule can then be derived [2] either from the Poisson approximation to the binomial distribution, or from the formula (1−p) n for the probability of zero events in the binomial distribution. In the latter case, the edge of the confidence interval is given by Pr( X = 0) = 0.05 and hence (1− p ) n = .05 so n ln (1– p ) = ln .05 ≈ −2.996.
A weaker three-sigma rule can be derived from Chebyshev's inequality, stating that even for non-normally distributed variables, at least 88.8% of cases should fall within properly calculated three-sigma intervals. For unimodal distributions, the probability of being within the interval is at least 95% by the Vysochanskij–Petunin inequality ...
The only other nonzero payout might be $1 for hitting 3 numbers (i.e., you get your bet back), which has a probability near 0.129819548. Taking the sum of products of payouts times corresponding probabilities we get an expected return of 0.70986492 or roughly 71% for a 6-spot, for a house advantage of 29%.