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The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee. Biden would win the national popular vote by 4.4 ...
That undershoot of 3 points follows polls in 2020 that underestimated Trump's national margin by 4 points and in 2016 that underestimated his performance by 2 points, according to 538's averages ...
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Democratic Donald Trump Republican Other/ Undecided [a] Margin 270 to Win [147] October 17–27, 2020 November 3, 2020 61.7%: 32.3% 6.0% Biden +29.4: Real Clear Politics [148] September 26 – October 21, 2020 October 27, 2020 60.7%: 31.0% 8.3% Biden +29.7: FiveThirtyEight ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
Today, the 538 average of surveys gauging the former president’s popularity shows his unfavorable rating sitting at 52.1 percent. Harris’ unfavorable rating is at 52.22 percent in the same ...
Once again, Trump massively outperformed his polling average, which had Biden up 8.4 points in the state, but not enough to win the state. Trump held his own in counties in northern Wisconsin and in the WOW counties. [5] Biden won the highest vote share for a Democrat in Waukesha County, at 38.8%, since Jimmy Carter in 1976. [6]
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy. The polls included are among Republicans or Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters is prioritized, then registered voters, then adults.