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Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [citation needed] [dubious – discuss], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
In making a bet where the expected value is positive, one is said to be getting "the best of it". For example, if one were to bet $1 at 10 to 1 odds (one could win $10) on the outcome of a coin flip, one would be getting "the best of it" and should always make the bet (assuming a rational and risk-neutral attitude with linear utility curves and have no preferences implying loss aversion or the ...
The goal of the betting company is to get the same amount of bets on both sides of the overtime game. [6] [7] [8] In theory, this means that the manager can set a zero value and adjust it later based on the number of incoming bets and/or factors that may affect the outcome of the game. In practice, the initial value is based on both ...
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Many newspapers and other betting journals such as the Racing Post track the leading newspapers' tipsters and see how well their predictions match the actual outcome, by assuming a nominal £1 bet on every tip that the tipster makes, and calculating the theoretical return. Thus, tipsters themselves can be "tipped" as being a good or bad tipster.
Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the "true" odds. For instance, a common two-team NFL parlay based entirely on the spread generally has a payout of 2.64:1. In reality, however, if one assumes that each single game bet is 50/50, the true payout should instead be 3:1.
Football Power Index (abbreviated as FPI) is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team's FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA).
In most cases, the favorite will have negative moneyline odds (less payoff for a safer bet) and the underdog will have positive moneyline odds (more payoff for a risky bet). However, if the teams are evenly matched, both teams can have a negative line at the same time (e.g. −110 −110 or −105 −115), due to house take.