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Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis, [1] (ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions. [2] A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. [3]
Fig. 1 Typical project cash flow with uncertainty. The mathematical equation for the DM Method is shown below. The method captures the real option value by discounting the distribution of operating profits at R, the market risk rate, and discounting the distribution of the discretionary investment at r, risk-free rate, before the expected payoff is calculated.
The fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation (FPOM or pay-off method) [1] is a method for valuing real options, developed by Mikael Collan, Robert Fullér, and József Mezei; and published in 2009. It is based on the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy numbers for the creation of the possible pay-off distribution of a project (real
The value is defined as the least squares regression against market price of the option value at that state and time (-step). Option value for this regression is defined as the value of exercise possibilities (dependent on market price) plus the value of the timestep value which that exercise would result in (defined in the previous step of the ...
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Note that whereas equity options are more commonly valued using other pricing models such as lattice based models, for path dependent exotic derivatives – such as Asian options – simulation is the valuation method most commonly employed; see Monte Carlo methods for option pricing for discussion as to further – and more complex – option ...
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The term "option value" and its theoretical underpinnings as a non-user benefit were initially developed in 1964 by Burton Weisbrod. [12] It was posited as an element of benefit distinct from the traditional concept of consumer surplus, and it depended on three factors: (1) uncertainty about future need for the asset, (2) irreversibility or high cost of replacement if the asset is lost, and (3 ...