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Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
While politics and elections remained the main focus of FiveThirtyEight, the blog also sometimes addressed sports, including the March Madness [538 50] [538 51] [42] and the 2012 NCAA Men's Basketball tournament selection process, [538 52] the B.C.S. rankings in NCAA college football, [43] the NBA, [538 53] [538 54] [538 55] and Major League ...
On Tuesday, 538 released its 2024 election forecast for the House of Representatives. The general idea behind our forecast is to combine polling data (say, on which party Americans want to control ...
"Kamala Harris had been as short as 20/21 yesterday to win November's vote, however those odds have drifted out to 21/20 following the vice president debate overnight," Rosbottom said.
Statistical Football prediction is a method used in sports betting, to predict the outcome of football matches by means of statistical tools. The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [citation needed] [dubious – discuss], who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
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The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...