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This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.
Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts. The process of impact prediction follows three major steps: Discovery of an asteroid and initial assessment of its orbit which is generally based on a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks.
[note 1] The largest asteroid on this list that is risk–listed is 2023 SM 5 at about 17 meters in diameter with a 3.5-day observation arc and a 1: 91 000 chance of Earth impact on 2118 September 24. [3] For reference, the radius of Earth is about 0.0000426 AU (6,370 km; 3,960 mi) or 0.0166 lunar distances.
2024 YR 4 is an asteroid between 40 and 100 metres (130 and 330 ft) in diameter, classified as an Apollo-type (Earth-crossing) near-Earth object.It was discovered by the Chilean station of the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 27 December 2024.
An asteroid first spotted in December has a 1.2% chance of hitting Earth in 2032. Scientists are tracking the space rock to learn more about its size and trajectory. A newly discovered asteroid ...
Sentry is an automated impact prediction system started in 2002 and operated by the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. It continually monitors the most up-to-date asteroid catalog for possibilities of future impact with Earth over the next 100+ years. [1]
The asteroid, called 2024 UQ, was first spotted on 22 October by the Asteroid Terrestrial Impact Last Alert System, or ATLAS, a telescope network scanning the sky for space rocks likely headed for ...
In 2021, evidence for a probable impact 3.46 billion-years ago at Pilbara Craton has been found in the form of a 150 kilometres (93 mi) crater created by the impact of a 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) asteroid (named "The Apex Asteroid") into the sea at a depth of 2.5 kilometres (1.6 mi) (near the site of Marble Bar, Western Australia). [52]