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Meanwhile, the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers puts Trump's odds of victory at 63%, while Democrats have just 13% odds of holding the Senate and 48% of flipping the House.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
FiveThirtyEight is the 2008 Weblog Award Winner for "Best Political Coverage". [98] FiveThirtyEight earned a 2009 "Bloggie" as the "Best Weblog about Politics" in the 9th Annual Weblog Awards. [99] In April 2009, Silver was named "Blogger of the Year" in the 6th Annual Opinion Awards of The Week, for his work on FiveThirtyEight. [100]
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Kamala Harris Democratic Donald Trump Republican Others/ Undecided [a]Margin 270toWin [1]: through November 4, 2024
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 chief Nate Silver, puts Harris’ polling average at 47.1%, 2.5 points ahead of Trump’s 44.6%, as of its latest update on Aug. 18.
Possible Electoral Vote Counts. When you vote, you don’t elect the president: You tell your state’s electoral-college electors how to vote. In most states, all electors vote with the state’s popular opinion.
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics