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In Bayesian statistics, the posterior predictive distribution is the distribution of possible unobserved values conditional on the observed values. [1] [2]Given a set of N i.i.d. observations = {, …,}, a new value ~ will be drawn from a distribution that depends on a parameter , where is the parameter space.
In the context of Bayesian statistics, the posterior probability distribution usually describes the epistemic uncertainty about statistical parameters conditional on a collection of observed data. From a given posterior distribution, various point and interval estimates can be derived, such as the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the highest ...
In Bayesian probability theory, if, given a likelihood function (), the posterior distribution is in the same probability distribution family as the prior probability distribution (), the prior and posterior are then called conjugate distributions with respect to that likelihood function and the prior is called a conjugate prior for the likelihood function ().
Bayesian theory calls for the use of the posterior predictive distribution to do predictive inference, i.e., to predict the distribution of a new, unobserved data point. That is, instead of a fixed point as a prediction, a distribution over possible points is returned. Only this way is the entire posterior distribution of the parameter(s) used.
The inference process generates a posterior distribution, which has a central role in Bayesian statistics, together with other distributions like the posterior predictive distribution and the prior predictive distribution. The correct visualization, analysis, and interpretation of these distributions is key to properly answer the questions that ...
For example, to calculate the 95% prediction interval for a normal distribution with a mean (μ) of 5 and a standard deviation (σ) of 1, then z is approximately 2. Therefore, the lower limit of the prediction interval is approximately 5 ‒ (2⋅1) = 3, and the upper limit is approximately 5 + (2⋅1) = 7, thus giving a prediction interval of ...
Bayesian linear regression is a type of conditional modeling in which the mean of one variable is described by a linear combination of other variables, with the goal of obtaining the posterior probability of the regression coefficients (as well as other parameters describing the distribution of the regressand) and ultimately allowing the out-of-sample prediction of the regressand (often ...
Posterior probability of success is calculated from posterior distribution. PPOS is calculated from predictive distribution. Posterior distribution is the summary of uncertainties about the parameter. Predictive distribution has not only the uncertainty about parameter but also the uncertainty about estimating parameter using data.