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Prospect theory is a theory of behavioral economics, ... Critics from the field of psychology argued that even if Prospect Theory arose as a descriptive model, ...
It is an idea introduced in prospect theory. Normally a reduction in the probability of winning a reward (e.g., a reduction from 80% to 20% in the chance of winning a reward) creates a psychological effect such as displeasure to individuals, which leads to the perception of loss from the original probability thus favoring a risk-averse decision.
Prospect theory posits that a loss is more significant than the equivalent gain, [2] that a sure gain (certainty effect and pseudocertainty effect) is favored over a probabilistic gain, [3] and that a probabilistic loss is preferred to a definite loss. [2]
Prospect theory and loss aversion suggests that most people would choose option B as they prefer the guaranteed $920 since there is a probability of winning $0, even though it is only 1%. This demonstrates that people think in terms of expected utility relative to a reference point (i.e. current wealth) as opposed to absolute payoffs.
Reference dependence is a central principle in prospect theory and behavioral economics generally. It holds that people evaluate outcomes and express preferences relative to an existing reference point, or status quo. It is related to loss aversion and the endowment effect. [1] [2]
In 1979, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky traced the cause of the disposition effect to the so-called "prospect theory". [3] The prospect theory proposes that when an individual is presented with two equal choices, one having possible gains and the other with possible losses, the individual is more likely to opt for the former choice even ...
n November 1954, 29-year-old Sammy Davis Jr. was driving to Hollywood when a car crash left his eye mangled beyond repair. Doubting his potential as a one-eyed entertainer, the burgeoning performer sought a solution at the same venerable institution where other misfortunate starlets had gone to fill their vacant sockets: Mager & Gougelman, a family-owned business in New York City that has ...
In mental accounting theory, the framing effect defines that the way a person subjectively frames a transaction in their mind will determine the utility they receive or expect. [11] The concept of framing is adopted in prospect theory , which is commonly used by mental accounting theorists as the value function in their analysis (Richard Thaler ...