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Hindsight bias: Sometimes called the "I-knew-it-all-along" effect, or the "Hindsight is 20/20" effect, is the tendency to see past events as having been predictable [99] before they happened. Impact bias: The tendency to overestimate the length or the intensity of the impact of future feeling states. [47] Information bias
Hindsight bias is more likely to occur when the outcome of an event is negative rather than positive. [14] This is a phenomenon consistent with the general tendency for people to pay more attention to negative outcomes of events than positive outcomes.
The hindsight bias is defined as a tendency to change an opinion from an original thought to something different because of newly provided information. [10] Since 1973, when Fischhoff started the hindsight bias research, there has been a focus on two main explanations of the bias: distorted event probabilities and distorted memory for judgments of factual knowledge. [11]
The Cognitive Bias Codex. A cognitive bias is a systematic pattern of deviation from norm or rationality in judgment. [1] Individuals create their own "subjective reality" from their perception of the input. An individual's construction of reality, not the objective input, may dictate their behavior in the world.
Social desirability bias is a type of response bias that influences a participant to deny undesirable traits, and ascribe to themselves traits that are socially desirable. [2] In essence, it is a bias that drives an individual to answer in a way that makes them look more favorable to the experimenter. [1] [2] This bias can take many forms.
The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Specifically, the outcome effect occurs when the same "behavior produce[s] more ethical condemnation when it happen[s] to produce bad rather than good outcome, even if the outcome is determined by chance." [1] While similar to the hindsight bias, the two phenomena are markedly different. Hindsight bias focuses on memory distortion to favor the ...
Implicit bias is an aspect of implicit social cognition: the phenomenon that perceptions, attitudes, and stereotypes operate without conscious intention. For example, researchers may have implicit bias when designing survey questions and as a result, the questions do not produce accurate results or fail to encourage survey participation. [125]