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Weather reconnaissance aircraft, such as this WP-3D Orion, provide data that is then used in numerical weather forecasts.. The atmosphere is a fluid.As such, the idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of fluid dynamics and thermodynamics to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model [1] (/ ˈ w ɔːr f /) is a numerical weather prediction (NWP) system designed to serve both atmospheric research and operational forecasting needs. NWP refers to the simulation and prediction of the atmosphere with a computer model, and WRF is a set of software for this.
The Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is an Earth system modeling software that integrates atmospheric, oceanographic, and cryospheric modeling across scales from regional to planetary. It includes climate and weather modeling and simulations that were used initially by researchers in 2013. [ 1 ]
The world's first televised weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the BBC in November 1936. [31] This was brought into practice in 1949, after World War II. [31] George Cowling gave the first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954.
Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecasting skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error, mean absolute error, relative mean absolute error, bias, and the Brier score, among ...
In weather forecasting, model output statistics (MOS) is a multiple linear regression technique in which predictands, often near-surface quantities (such as two-meter-above-ground-level air temperature, horizontal visibility, and wind direction, speed and gusts), are related statistically to one or more predictors.
Graphical 12-hour forecast output from RUC2. The Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) was an American atmospheric prediction system that consisted primarily of a numerical forecast model and an analysis system to initialize the model. The first operational implementation was created in 1994, with 60km resolution and a 3-hour cycle.
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different ...