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The chart below shows opinion polls conducted since the 2024 general election. The trend lines are local regressions (LOESS). The bar on the left represents the previous election, and the bar on the right represents the latest possible date of the next election.
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
"Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each ...
[22] According to the House of Commons, Parliament first met on 9 July 2024 [ 23 ] [ 24 ] [ 25 ] meaning that unless Parliament is dissolved earlier it will be automatically dissolved on 9 July 2029, and the latest an election could be held is 15 August 2029.
[2] [3] In YouGov polls before June 2019, only the Conservatives, Labour, and Liberal Democrats were prompted, the names of other parties being listed when "other" was selected. [4] YouGov polls conducted since June 2019 prompt for both the Greens and the Brexit Party, alongside the earlier list. [ 5 ]
Leader Nigel Farage: Carla Denyer and Adrian Ramsay: Party Reform UK: Green: Leader since 3 June 2024 1 October 2021: Leader's seat Clacton: Bristol Central and Waveney Valley: Last election
First Draft News released an analysis of Facebook ads posted by political parties between 1 and 4 December. The analysis reported that 88% of the 6,749 posts the Conservatives made had been "challenged" by fact checker Full Fact. 5,000 of these ads related to a "40 new hospitals" claim, of which Full Fact concluded only six had been costed ...
A prediction of this kind might be informed by a predicting person's abductive reasoning, inductive reasoning, deductive reasoning, and experience; and may be useful—if the predicting person is a knowledgeable person in the field. [2] The Delphi method is a technique for eliciting such expert-judgement-based predictions in a controlled way.