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A vital system of Atlantic Ocean currents that influences weather across the world could collapse as soon as the late 2030s, scientists have suggested in a new study — a planetary-scale disaster ...
Like in paleoceanographic models, the mechanism and likelihood of collapse have been investigated using climate models. [3] Most present-day climate models already predict a gradual weakening of the AMOC over the 21st century due to anthropogenic forcing, although there is large uncertainty in the amount of decrease.
“The collapse of the AMOC has huge implications, and we can’t just sit back and say, ‘I don’t know, maybe we’re wrong,’” Susanne Ditlevsen says, shrugging. “I hope we’re wrong ...
The collapse of critical ocean circulation could bring major droughts and freezing temperatures across Europe
In 2022, a major review of tipping points concluded an AMOC collapse would lower global temperatures by around 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) while regional temperatures in Europe would fall by between 4 °C (7.2 °F) and 10 °C (18 °F). [14] [100] A 2020 study assessed the effects of an AMOC collapse on farming and food production in Great Britain. [162]
There has been a suggestion that its collapse may occur between 1.7 °C (3.1 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), but this estimate is much less certain than for many other tipping points. [16] The impacts of Southern Ocean overturning circulation collapse have also been less closely studied, though scientists expect them to unfold over multiple centuries.
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AMOC-Index since 900 CE with pronounced slowdown since ~1850; Rahmstorf et al. (2015) [5] Climate scientists Michael Mann of Penn State and Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggested that the observed cold pattern during years of temperature records is a sign that the Atlantic Ocean's Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) may be weakening.