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New Jersey joined most other blue and blue-leaning states such as New York, California, and Illinois in seeing significant rightward trends in 2024. [3] Trump's over 1.96 million votes is the most received by a Republican in a presidential election in the state's history, surpassing Ronald Reagan 's 1.93 million votes from 1984 .
Poll results can be affected by methodology, especially in how they predict who will vote in the next election, and re-weighting answers to compensate for slightly non-random samples. One technique, "weighting on recalled vote" is an attempt to compensate for previous underestimates of votes for Donald Trump by rebalancing the sample based on ...
Good news, polling fans: 538 now has polling averages for the new presidential matchup between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. As of Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern, our ...
The 1880, 1884 and 1888 elections also stood on the razor’s edge, with New York serving as the tipping-point state in each at a time when it was the country’s most populous state. And in 1916 ...
The latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 2.6-point lead over Trump. ... The latest polls from the New York Times/Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 ...
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During the 2024 election cycle, the group correctly forecasted 513 out of 525 federal elections correctly using their quantitative models, missing 3 out of 56 calls at the presidential level, 8 out of 435 in the House of Representatives, and 1 out of 34 races in the Senate elections, for a 98% accuracy rating overall.
The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows President Biden more likely to win than former President Trump — Biden’s best odds since May. The model’s Tuesday update ...