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The ambiguity effect is a cognitive tendency where decision making is affected by a lack of information, or "ambiguity". [1] The effect implies that people tend to select options for which the probability of a favorable outcome is known, over an option for which the probability of a favorable outcome is unknown.
The ancient Greek philosophers Plato and Aristotle debated economic equality. Painting by Raffaello Sanzio (1509). According to professor of politics Ed Rooksby, the concept of equality of outcome is an important one in disputes between different political positions, since equality has overall been seen as positive and an important concept that is "deeply embedded in the fabric of modern ...
The tendency to be over-optimistic, underestimating greatly the probability of undesirable outcomes and overestimating favorable and pleasing outcomes (see also wishful thinking, valence effect, positive outcome bias, and compare pessimism bias). [109] [110] Ostrich effect
A simple example is the tossing of a fair (unbiased) coin. Since the coin is fair, the two outcomes ("heads" and "tails") are both equally probable; the probability of "heads" equals the probability of "tails"; and since no other outcomes are possible, the probability of either "heads" or "tails" is 1/2 (which could also be written as 0.5 or 50%).
In probability theory, an outcome is a possible result of an experiment or trial. [1] Each possible outcome of a particular experiment is unique, and different outcomes are mutually exclusive (only one outcome will occur on each trial of the experiment). All of the possible outcomes of an experiment form the elements of a sample space. [2]
Optimism is the attitude or mindset of expecting events to lead to particularly positive, favorable, desirable, and hopeful outcomes. A common idiom used to illustrate optimism versus pessimism is a glass filled with water to the halfway point : an optimist is said to see the glass as half full, while a pessimist sees the glass as half empty.
An immutable outcome (e.g., gravity) is difficult to modify cognitively whereas a mutable outcome (e.g., speed) is easier to cognitively modify. Most events lie somewhere in the middle of these extremes. [30] The more mutable the antecedents of an outcome are, the greater availability there is of counterfactual thoughts. [4]
The difference between individual controlled action and outcomes is best conveyed through an example. [citation needed] In a sales job, a favorable outcome is a certain level of revenue generated through the sale of something (merchandise, or some service such as insurance). Revenue can be generated or not, depending on the behavior of employees.