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A false positive Covid-19 test result can happen, but it’s rare, says Brian Labus, Ph.D., M.P.H., assistant professor at the University of Nevada Las Vegas School of Public Health.
In the most basic sense, there are four possible outcomes for a COVID-19 test, whether it’s molecular PCR or rapid antigen: true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative.
Test errors can be false positives (the test is positive, but the virus is not present) or false negatives, (the test is negative, but the virus is present). [179] In a study of over 900,000 rapid antigen tests, false positives were found to occur at a rate of 0.05% or 1 in 2000.
The false positive rate (FPR) is the proportion of all negatives that still yield positive test outcomes, i.e., the conditional probability of a positive test result given an event that was not present. The false positive rate is equal to the significance level. The specificity of the test is equal to 1 minus the false positive rate.
Antigen tests can be analyzed within a few minutes. Antigen tests are less accurate than PCR tests. It has a low false positive rate, but a higher false negative rate. A negative test result may require confirmation with a PCR test. [8] Advocates claim that antigen tests are less expensive and can be scaled up more rapidly than PCR tests. [8]
Accuracy varies among each test, but Ellume says that its test has a 96 percent accuracy rate in detecting symptomatic cases of COVID-19 and 91 percent accuracy in detecting asymptomatic cases ...
The log diagnostic odds ratio can also be used to study the trade-off between sensitivity and specificity [5] [6] by expressing the log diagnostic odds ratio in terms of the logit of the true positive rate (sensitivity) and false positive rate (1 − specificity), and by additionally constructing a measure, :
It’s possible for an expired COVID test to show a false positive—but it’s also possible for a non-expired COVID test to show a false positive, Dr. Russo says. It’s just not super likely ...