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The minimum orbit intersection distance (MOID) between an asteroid and the Earth is the distance between the closest points of their orbits. This first check is a coarse measure that does not allow an impact prediction to be made, but is based solely on the orbit parameters and gives an initial measure of how close to Earth the asteroid could come.
This asteroid travels in both the main-belt and in the near-Earth region. It passed Earth on 29 June 2024 at a distance of 184,000 miles (295,000 kilometers). That distance is about 0.77 lunar distances (LD). [2] The close approach with Earth changed 2024 MK's orbit, shortening its orbital period by about 24 days.
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey.
Orbit determination has a long history, beginning with the prehistoric discovery of the planets and subsequent attempts to predict their motions. Johannes Kepler used Tycho Brahe's careful observations of Mars to deduce the elliptical shape of its orbit and its orientation in space, deriving his three laws of planetary motion in the process.
Radar animation of asteroid 1998 OR 2, which came within 16 lunar distances in April 2020. A list of known near-Earth asteroid close approaches less than 1 lunar distance (0.0025696 AU (384,410 km; 238,860 mi)) from Earth in 2020. [note 2] For reference, the radius of Earth is about 0.0000426 AU (6,370 km; 3,960 mi) or 0.0166 lunar distances.
More than one asteroid per year may be listed if its geocentric distance [note 1] is within a tenth of the lunar distance, or 0.10 LD. For comparison, since a satellite in a geostationary orbit has an altitude of about 36,000 km (22,000 mi), then its geocentric distance is 0.11 LD (approximately three times the width of the Earth).
The asteroid with the greatest chance of impacting Earth in 2023 is 2016 LP 10 (4-meters in diameter) with less than a 1-day observation arc. [8] It had a 1:53,000 chance of impact on 10 June 2023, but was expected to be around 0.6 AU (90 million km ) from Earth on that date. [ 10 ]