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If the observed or forecast rainfall volume is greater than the characteristic rainfall volume then flooding in the catchment is likely. The characteristic rainfall volume for a particular catchment and duration, called "flash flood guidance", depends on the catchment and drainage network characteristics, and the soil water deficit determined ...
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office's Unified Model is run six days into the future, [55] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [56] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [57]
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), located in College Park, Maryland, is one of nine service centers under the umbrella of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a part of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the U.S. Government.
In many operational systems forecasted precipitation is fed into rainfall-runoff and streamflow routing models to forecast flow rates and water levels for periods ranging from a few hours to days ahead, depending on the size of the watershed or river basin.
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. [1]
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The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
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