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Flash Flood Threat is the amount of rainfall of a given duration in excess of the corresponding Flash Flood Guidance value. The flash flood threat when used with existing or forecast rainfall then is an index that provides an indication of areas where flooding is imminent or occurring and where immediate action is or will be shortly needed.
The Weather Prediction Center also acts as the backup office to the National Hurricane Center in the event of a complete communications failure. Long range climatological forecasts are produced by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), a branch of the National Weather Service. These include 8–14 day outlooks, monthly outlooks, and seasonal ...
The Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland provides guidance for future precipitation amounts and areas where excessive rainfall is likely, [40] while local NWS offices are responsible for issuing Flood Watches, Flash Flood Watches, Flood Warnings, Flash Flood Warnings, and Flood Advisories for their local County Warning Area, as ...
The global models are run at varying times into the future. The Met Office's Unified Model is run six days into the future, [55] the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model is run out to 10 days into the future, [56] while the Global Forecast System model run by the Environmental Modeling Center is run 16 days into the future. [57]
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
Within the United States, the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, [20] River Forecast Centers, [1] and local forecast offices within the National Weather Service create precipitation forecasts for up to five days in the future, [21] forecasting amounts equal to or greater than 0.01 inches (0.25 mm). Starting in the mid-to-late 1990s, QPFs ...
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The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. [1]