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On June 6, 2010, FiveThirtyEight posted pollster rankings that updated and elaborated Silver's efforts from the 2008 election. Silver expanded the database to more than 4,700 election polls and developed a model for rating the polls that was more sophisticated than his original rankings. [538 3] [13] Silver responded on 538: "Where's the ...
You can check which is which by looking them up on 538's pollster ratings page. If a pollster has a 3.0 rating, you should take it pretty seriously; if it has a 0.5 rating, it's not very reliable ...
In 2020, FiveThirtyEight’s final Wisconsin polling average put Biden ahead of Trump by more than 8 percentage points. Biden wound up winning the state by less than 1 point — but because he won ...
Statistician Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight maintains a list of pollsters who conduct surveys in U.S. political elections and assigns each pollster a rating based on its methodology and historical accuracy. [9] Silver also lists the number of polls analyzed for each pollster. [9] Cygnal [10] [11] [12] Elway Research; Emerson College Polling [13]
Just take a look at our pollster ratings — eight of the top 10 ranked pollsters are news organizations or universities. The fact that these groups are making up a large share of the polling this ...
J. Ann Selzer (born 1956) is an American political pollster and the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. [1] [2] She was described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.
That poll ended up being wrong, as Trump is currently holding onto a 13-point lead in the state, but other Iowa pollsters got it much closer, pegging Trump’s winning margin in the high single ...
FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has long critiqued ARG. In 2008, he wrote in Daily Kos about their poor track record and later challenged Bennett to a polling contest that the latter did not take up. [ 7 ] [ 8 ] ARG was noted by Silver as performing particularly poorly in the 2012 US presidential election : "Polls by American Research Group ...