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Polymarket gives Trump even better odds, 51-44. Smarkets has the race at a dead heat, 48-48. The odds swung over the weekend when Trump's odds of winning Pennsylvania went up.
The national polling average released by Silver on Sunday morning showed Harris over Trump 48.5% to 47.6%. But he cautioned his model doesn’t care about the national polls as much at this stage.
Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball and elections.He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News until May 2023. [2]
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had Harris’s odds at 50%. Split Ticket put her at 53%. The Economist gave her a 56% chance of winning.
In the leadup to Biden's withdrawal, 538 was the only professional election forecaster to give Biden majority odds of winning the 2024 election. [93] Silver criticized Morris's model, describing it as at best ignoring the polls and giving Biden positive odds merely due to his incumbency , and at worst as being "buggy".
Local regression of two-way polling between Trump and Biden conducted up to the 2024 United States presidential election (excludes others and undecided). The dashed line marks Biden's withdrawal from the race.
Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 chief Nate Silver, puts Harris’ polling average at 47.1%, 2.5 points ahead of Trump’s 44.6%, as of its latest update on Aug. 18.
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote.